The Boss Is Right

The hordes waiting in line for hours today to get that new iPhone 4 make it hard to believe that Apple is losing share in the smartphone market.  But as I wrote last week, they are and they will continue to do so.  Those hordes are merely trading up, not increasing iPhone share one bit. 

In the comments of that post, Stephen Fleming, my boss, noted this:

I don't disagree that Android, in its many variations, may dominate MARKET share of smartphones a few years from now. But, with all the revenue streams from iTunes, the App Store, the iBooks store, and iAds, I think Apple will continue to dominate the PROFIT share. And that's what Jobs is targeting this time around.

Stephen is right. He's right because it's not really about the phone because the phone is no longer a phone.

Tell you a story.

About eight to ten years ago I was the guy that started and ran EarthLink's mobile business.  The Internet was just beginning to move off the desktop into handhelds and there was a big rush to get there.  Companies such as AventGo and Everypath promised to get web content into the mobile environment.  There was just one problem with this plan. Well maybe two.  Back then wireless transit speeds were extremely limited. Viewing any content was painful.  Very painful, nobody had the patience.  But the bigger issue was that users did not even want content on their mobile devices.  They wanted what got them to use the Internet in the first place.  Communications.  Email.  The handheld, that is what we called them back then, needed to morph to a communications device not a content device. So we went out and built that capability, sold it to our installed customer base, and built a nice little business around it.

Fast forward to 2007.  The launch of the iPhone 2G.  Why they called the 1st generation phone a 2G when all other Apple handhelds use the numeric before the G to designate generation is beyond me.  But I digress. The iPhone was not a phone.  It was something.  A platform.  At the time what exactly it was a platform for was unclear.  But if you used one a little voice deep inside was telling you "this changes everything."

And what is becoming clear in 2010 is what it changes.  The iPhone is not a phone.  Yeah it does all that communications stuff like email, talking, texting, and more.  But it does something else, and it does it pretty darn well.  It delivers content.  Hell it creates content. The iPhone has made the jump from being a communications device to being a content device.  It's the only thing out there like it, which is why the hordes are waiting in line to upgrade.  And even more importantly, delivering content can be a very big and profitable business even if the iPhone becomes a niche player in the smart phone market.  

CapVenture

CapVenture is a training program that is put on by ATDC and TAG that is in its third year. The purpose of the program is to prepare companies seeking their first round of institutional funding to go out and get it.  The programming takes place for six Tuesday evenings beginning on August 17. The final night, September 21, is pitch night.  The top company that emerges from CapVenture, as voted on by the audience (a crowd of about 100 investors and tech leaders) during the final presentations, will be offered a slot to present at Venture Atlanta.

The cost to participate, yes it costs money, starts at $174.  Here are the details.  Early registration closes on July 9 so if you are interested in participating it is time to get your application rolling.   Final registrations are due August 6, if you wait until then it will cost you a bit more to play.

Seen This Movie

So yesterday, according to The New York Times, Apple took about 600k in new iPhone orders.  Rock on.  At about $200 a pop that is about $120 million in revenue plus whatever the AT&T sub happens to be.  Most likely three x that or $360 mill in total. Not bad for a day when you are unable to complete customer orders.

A big yippee ki-yay for Steve and his dedicated team from Cupertino.  Atlanta based Gerry Purdy chimed in “It shows the Apple magic is still present, it’s impressive.”

As a heavy Apple user and someone that intends to get a new iPhone my response is "perhaps." The money quote from the NYT article:

Still, analysts said, Apple is struggling to maintain the same clear-cut lead over rivals that it had in the past. In particular, the growing portfolio of Android-powered phones, which number in the dozens this year and are offered by many companies, is a significant threat.

“The reality is that in the long term, the Android market share is going to catch up to Apple,” said Charles Golvin, a wireless analyst at Forrester Research.  “When you have one device being sold to a smaller portion of the population, it’s not going to compete as well as many devices from many vendors on multiple carriers.”

We've seen this movie before.  Apple.  Microsoft.  The personal computer early market share war.  We all know how that ended.  Apple niche.  Microsoft dominance.  

The end game for the mobile OS wars has been foreshadowed.

Plates In The Air

I have this great little advisory board.  It is more of a personal advisory board then anything else.  Some of them know that is what they are.  Some of them do not.  Some of them that know do not know of the other members.  They are great.  They listen.  They advise.  And more often than not I try to act on at least one thing they tell me.  That is why they keep giving me advice.

Recently I had a meeting with one of my advisors.  I try to do this with each of them one on one about every six to eight weeks.  And after a bit of conversation they let out with this observation.  "Lance you have too many plates in the air." 

I was stunned.  I feel like I am pretty singularly set on a goal.  And it took a while but it finally dawned on me.  I was being told that I was not focused.  And the person that was telling me this was right.  I was actually doubly stunned.  Because in my day job at ATDC most likely the number one piece of advice I give to entrepreneurs that I work with is to focus more intently.  It is just amazing that when you are in a situation that you don't realize that lack of focus is the issue.  Focus means giving up choices and options, and giving up choice and options is hard.  But as an entrepreneur that is exactly what you need to do.

Regardless the advisor conversation went on.  She used an analogy.  It's kinda like deciding to marry someone.  You just know.  Your gut tells you what to do.  And the even more dead on point is that is what happened to me.  Before I started dating my wife I employed the baseball rotation.  Four or five semi casual girlfriends that were always game to do something.  But when Abby and I decided to date I just knew. 

And so it goes with startups and startup choices. 

TiE Entrepreneurial Summit

You Need a Networking Profile

It's funny the way the Internet works sometimes.  Last Friday I uploaded a networking profile to Scrid in prep of this article.  On Monday my friend Shannon Russo writes a great piece on why you need a networking plan in order to land a new position.

My purpose for creating a sample networking profile is simple.  Something like 80% of job opportunities are filled via networking.  Lots of folks want to meet with me as part of their job search because they believe I am well connected in the Atlanta technology world and can introduce them to job opportunities.  Neither clause is necessarily true.  Yes I know a number of folks in the tech community, the vast vast majority who work for companies with less then $1 million in revenue, more often than not with zero revenue.  Because they have no revenue they do not hire people (with the exception of the well funded).  As a result of this our meetings are not very productive.  I hate non-productive meetings.  How can job seekers help to make meetings more productive?

Create a networking profile.

I first learned about a networking profile from Michelle Tullier a number of years ago.  Michelle has written quite a few books on the subject of careers, including one called Networking for Job Search and Career Success.  The purpose of a networking profile is to show it to the people that you are networking with in your career search during face to face meetings in order to start a meaningful dialog that will get you closer to discovering job opportunities.  To provide people you are meeting with a spark to help them point you to other people who may point you to opportunities.

The sample networking profile I created is below.   If I were really using this document as a job search tool I would take Shannon's advice and list out target companies that are interesting to you.  I have done this in real world situations and it is amazing how it leads to conversations and connections.

If you are going to network in your search, and you should, you need a networking profile.  Don't leave home without it.

PepsiCo10

Here in the heart of the New South folks don't talk about Pepsi much.  When I first moved to Atlanta from the NYC area I walked into Stone Soup and much to my surprise they did not even stock the stuff.  Over on North Ave our KO friends will not mention the company by name.  But the good folks from Purchase have put together a program called PepsiCo10 that is worth talking about.

PepsiCo10 is an opportunity for startups to share ideas and gain access to PepsiCo brand experts, media specialists, and venture capital mentors.  The program is focused on businesses in one of four subject categories: social media & marketing; mobile marketing; place-based and retail experiential marketing and digital video and gaming.  The PepsiCo10 is open to small media and technology companies with product in market.  Startups may have already publicly launched a solution or may have a beta ready for launch, but the product has to have been in market for less than two years.  Applicants must have minimum annual revenue of $250,000 or total funding ranging from $250,000 to $10 million.  They will make exceptions companies that have participated in accelerator or incubator programs (like ATDC).

Out of the field of applicants up to 40 companies will be invited to present a formal RFP and five minute introduction video to PepsiCo and its partners.  From there, up to 20 companies will be selected to present at a two day PepsiCo10 Summit on July 27 and 28 in Purchase, New York. Following the PepsiCo10 Summit, up to 10 companies will be chosen to pursue a pilot project with a PepsiCo brand team.  So if this sounds pretty interesting the first step is to fill out the online application by June 24.

AT&T's Pricing Moves

Last week, in advance of the unveiling of the new iPhone 4G and the iPhone OS4 operating system a little bit later today by Steve Jobs at Apple's World Wide Developer Conference, AT&T announced that it is dropping it's unlimited data plans for iPhones.  Of course they did not spin it this way but instead of its current $30 unlimited plan, AT&T is moving to a $15 200MB plan and a $25 2GB plan.  The unlimited plan is going away.  Buh bye.

Oh the irony.  This is AT&T, the company that made $19.95 unlimited Internet pricing the market standard.  That $19.95 all you can eat pricing exploded the use of the Internet and was the first shot to the body of AOL which at the time had metered pricing.

Let me tell you something.  I was hanging out in the Internet industry back then.  Consumers hate, absolutely hate metered Internet plans.  They don't understand metered data pricing models.  They don't understand data use pricing models because they are complicated.  Go try and calculate how much you consume.  

I have conducted a good deal of research on this subject.  Consumers will pay significantly more per month for a flat rate plan in lieu of having to monitor their usage or getting the big bill one month.  Most will pay a 25% premium for a flat rate plan and many will pay a 50% premium.  And if you are a smart access provider, you price your services so that the flat rate non use breakage of the lighter users makes up for the heavier user behavior.  This enables you to make money by rapidly growing your user base.  You have to have the flat rate to remove consumer uncertainty which creates purchase hesitation.  

AT&T knows this.  They are looking to stop data consumption by heavier prospects/users by getting them to move to other networks, and get lighter data consumers to buy the $25 plan to remove billing uncertainty.  The former is the quickest path to improve the overall performance of the AT&T network while the latter will help with margins.  And once AT&T spends a little time actually building out a more robust network I expect that AT&T will return with an unlimited plan.  And the price will be more than $30 a month.

The Next Facebook

Last night Abby and I were having a nice little stroll to dinner when the subject of Facebook came up.  I mentioned to her Mark Zuckerberg's reported comments via IM about Facebook users.  "They trust me.  Dumb f***s."

Don't know if the story is true or not.  I do know that Facebook has a pretty aggressive attitude about privacy, one that does not sit well with many users including me.  Abby was aghast about the Zuck's comment and asked "so what's the next Facebook?"  It's a company that will do two thing well.

Performance was one of the main factors that led to the decline of MySpace.  Privacy could lead to the decline of Facebook.  The next great social network will perform at scale and treat users and their privacy preferences with respect.

And BTW, Shel Israel is right, it is time for Mark Zuckerberg to step down.

Medium Models

"I think people are willing to pay for content. I believe it for music and video, and I believe it for the media."

                                                                                                Steve Jobs

Steve made the comment at D8 on Tuesday.  About the same time I was having an interesting conversation with some smart people about the same subject.  And here was the most interesting point of the conversation.  Music, video, and whatever the heck media is are very different. 

People purchase music for the most part because it is provides very repeatable consumption.  The number of times I have listened to Damn The Torpedos is countless.  But with the exceptions The Lord of the Rings, T2, and whatever your personal favs happen to be, video is generally rented or subscribed to because you really only need to see it once.

Music, as content, is a little bit ahead of video in terms of consumption via new technology distribution methods.  The buying model has held serve.  I would surmise that as video becomes more Internet oriented that the traditional model of renting or subscribing and not owning will become the predominant purchase method. 

People will indeed pay for content if packaged the right way. The big question is who will figure out the right way to package and deliver these next generation video rental/subscription services.  It is going to be an interesting game.