To paraphrase America, I tried a Q4 update, but I got so damn depressed, that I set my sights on May and got myself undressed.
Boy were things ugly three months ago. As is the norm, Knology was the last of the stocks in my portfolio to report
earnings. Here is my quarterly (well bi-quarterly) stock update.
AAPL. What a yo-yo. $160 to $200 to $120 and back to $190. I have faith that the penetration that I am seeing in the world of geeks is going to spread. Holding.
ELNK. Got a nice bounce to a 52 week high after the earnings call. I sold my position.
KNOL. Knology
spent most the the last six months in a slide then got a pop on Q1 earnings. That is all I needed to sell. And I did. With a $3.00 basis costs $14.63 is a nice return through 41 months. I will take a 130% annual return any day.
NFLX.
Same story as six months ago. Blockbuster pulling back on marketing and Movie Gallery filing chapter
11 results in strong subscriber growth at NetFlix. So much for those
competitive pressures that were dampening performance. Flew up to $40 before retreating to $30. Up 38% in 12 months. Sold half my holdings to lock up some profits.
SCUR. These guys are making me sick. Stock has gone from $10 to $5 in the last six months. Every time they have an earnings call the stock drops. I have lost faith in management. I am not alone. At the moment there is no resistance. I need to unload it but will wait for a little recovery before I do so.
VMW purchased the stock at $100 on what I called "recent weakness due to misplaced concerns with Dell's purchase of EqualLogic". Shortly there after they issued guidance below expectations and the stock dropped 31% in a day. It has recovered slightly and seem volatile enough to make further gains.
I took some of the proceeds from the above mentioned sales and went a bit earlier in the food chain with some private equity investments.
I also wrote a check to Profounder, an investment company focused on turning ideas and technologies into compelling opportunities for professional investors. The company has not launched.
Today Knology was the last of the stocks in my portfolio to report earnings. Here is my quarterly stock update. It's a good one.
AAPL. Blew right through the $160 target that I set in August and now sitting over $180. 50% appreciation in the past three months. Given the weight in my portfolio, this explosion continues to drive overall portfolio performance growth. Apple's CPU traction remains strong. With Leopard, the new iPods and recently announced MacBook updates I expect a very strong finish to the calendar year. My advice is to buy on any weakness.
ELNK. Rolla Huff did a fine job of cutting costs and got a good pop out of the stock. I have yet to see any potential growth strategy. I heard the word CLEC a lot on the earnings call. CLECs are boring. Most likely will sell off if it pops a little more but right now it is looking pretty flat.
JOE. Joe
continues fall from $41 to $32. They swung from earnings of $6 million last year to a loss of $6.8 million this year. Home sales are down a whopping 46%. Gonna take the tax loss on this one. Purchased some VMWare (VMW) based on the recent weakness due to misplaced concerns with Dell's purchase of EqualLogic.
KNOL. Knology
is up from $14 to $16 in the past three months.
They just announced a solid quarter from a revenue growth perspective and entered into an agreement to buy Graceba which will fuel future growth. Holding.
NFLX. Blockbuster pulling back on marketing and Movie Gallery filing chapter 11 results in strong subscriber growth at NetFlix. So much for those competitive pressures that were dampening performance. What looked like a mistake in Q2 is a winner in Q3. Up 24% since May purchase.
SCUR. Secure Computing has been on a nice steady upward march. Until the earnings call. Management gave some misguided guidance. Regardless, the stock has returned to the $10 level it was at before the big CipherTrust sell off. I may regret this, but I intend to sell off my stake to make my first angel investment, a bit of an energy play.
Its been a great three months with the portfolio up 13.5%. And while there are some unique events driving the number, Quicken claims my 12 month return is sitting at 347%. And no, I did not miss a period in there.
Yesterday Knology was the last of the stocks in my play money portfolio to report earnings. Here is how I am doing.
AAPL. Bought into the stock in April at
$100. CPU traction was the reason. To paraphrase Paul Graham, everyone I know that is looking to buy a computer (and has control of the purchasing decision) is looking to buy a Mac. On top of that the iPhone is a game changer. It is a computer in your hand that you can also talk to people with. Early iPhone sales results has added some volatility to the stock. Regardless it is up 36% since purchase and driving overall recent portfolio gains. I see $160 in the near term.
ELNK. Last time I wrote about this one I said "I don't
see a business in consumer muni Wi-Fi". Well there is a new sheriff in town at EarthLink named Rolla Huff and neither does he. Based on what Rolla said during the earnings call (the stock is down 15% since he first publicly spoke on July 26) and my general knowledge of the ISP business here's a scenario. EarthLink exits the Wi-Fi business. They invest no more in Helio than what they have formally committed to and only if Sky Dayton meets certain operating milestones. The business is right sized, resulting in a 40% RIF, perhaps rehiring in some slots with salaries more appropriate for a $1.2 billion company. Private equity takes it out in a deal valued at $11 per share. Wired just reported that a deal is happening a lot sooner.
JOE. Joe continues to disappoint as much as Apple pleases. Down 36% for the year. I think that something better to do with this money is Whole Foods but there are just so many questions around that company right now.
KNOL. Knology
is a cable overbuilder offering triple play services. The stock has retreated from the $19 where I locked in some gains to buy Apple and is currently sitting at $14. Still a 400% return in less then 3 years. I have faith this will head north again based on revenue growth and cost control.
NFLX. Big mistake. Bought at $22 at the end of May and the stock is getting hammered based on competitive pressures. I purchased the stock because I
think someone is going to take them out. Still do, but it's painful at the moment.
SCUR. The story remains unchanged. Came into
this via my time at CipherTrust. Missed out on the big sell off when
restrictions were lifted. The stock is moving sideways and I would like to see a little recovery before
starting a measured unwind.
Its been a rough three months but overall my 12 month return dropped only a point to 36%.
With earnings season well past us I am long overdue with my update on stocks that I control. As I said beore, for the most part I
leave the handling of my stock portfolio to professionals. But I like
to keep a little chunk in play money so that I can invest as I see fit.
The number of stocks in the mix has increased from four to six. Here is the run down.
AAPL. Sold a bit of my Knology holdings at the end of April and bought Apple at $100. Basic reason for doing so is that I like their CPU traction. Beyond the numbers I hear folks in enterprises switching to Macs and neighbors asking me what I think of mine because they like the TV ad. The stock is up 22% in 60 days.
ELNK. I own
a little less EarthLink stock these days. I sold some to buy Netflix. EarthLink reported a loss of $.24 while analysts were expecting a loss of
$.30 and got a nice little pop. I have to keep it real and say I don't see a business in consumer muni Wi-Fi.
JOE. Joe is a good name for a dog and that is what I call Florida's largest real estate development company. Stock is down $10 (16%) since February. Holding until I figure out something better to do with the money.
KNOL. Knology is a cable overbuilder offering triple play services. Rodger Johnson has this one firing on all cylinders. And the stock is delivering as well. Up to the $19 range from $13 in February. I locked in some gains and purchased Apple with the proceeds.
NFLX. Recently purchased the stock for two reasons. They are well connected and I think someone is going to take them out. End of story. For now.
SCUR. Came into
this via my time at CipherTrust. Missed out on the big sell off when restrictions were lifted. Would like to see a little recovery before starting a measured unwind with most of the results going to the money professionals. The $15 I predicted in February seems far, far away.
Overall my 12 month return is 37%. I'll take that.
ATDC graduate company CardioMEMS, a medical device maker, filed an updated S1 last week setting a range of $12 - $14 for its six million share offering. CardioMEMS will trade on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol “SENS.”
With earnings season upon us I have been paying a little attention to some of the stocks that I own. To be more specific, I have been paying attention to the stocks that I own that I control. For the most part I leave the handling of my stock portfolio to professionals. But I like to keep a little chunk in play money so that I can invest as I see fit. Currently there are four stocks in the mix.
ELNK. I still own EarthLink stock that I acquired pre-MindSpring IPO. Since I left the company I have mostly unwound my position, but still have a little. They reported a loss of $.20 while analysts were expecting a loss of $.16. With the bets they have placed on muni and Helio there are many unknowns. Call me loyal, I continue to hold.
JOE. After flipping a property in the panhandle in 2005, making an investment in Joe seemed a little less risky then making another go at that. Joe is one Florida's largest real estate development companies. They "make places". Purchased the stock at $60 that October. Things were looking ugly for a while but it worked it way back to the $59 range recently. They announced, beat expectations and the stock is in the $62 range. Holding.
KNOL. Knology is an ITC company. They are a cable overbuilder offering triple play services. I bought the stock after meeting Rodger Johnson in 2004. He had a plan. He has executed on it and the stock has gone from $3 to over $13. Earnings are a few weeks out. When I like the price on Whole Foods, I may sell a portion of Knology to lock in the gain.
SCUR. Came into this via my time at CipherTrust. They knocked it out of the park last quarter and the stock shot up 25% on Monday. My shares are restricted so I hold. I can see the stock making its way to $15. The Motley Fool likes SCUR a lot and has them in the running for best tech stock of 2007.
My name is Lance Weatherby. This is my blog. I am a technology entrepreneur and currently a Venture Catalyst at Georgia Tech. I help launch and build technology companies.
The opinions expressed here are mine and mine alone (with the exception of comments by others of course). They do not represent the opinion or position of any other person on entity. All postings adhere to my personal values.
1
