I am sitting at the Ritz Carlton Reynolds Plantation surrounded by venture capitalist types at the AeA Venture Forum. A semi-rich target environment for entrepreneurs seeking capital.

Tom Noonan, whom I last saw in Beaver Creek sipping a beer après ski, started the morning with the history of ISS. Very candid conversation about the most difficult days there when they switched to a SaaS model. Based on the murmurings of the lack of early stage VCs in Atlanta these days it is interesting to note that he could not raise his Series A here in 1996.

All this financial mojo has me thinking a bit more about Rich DeMillo’s deforestation comments at the Georgia Technology Summit. Justin Rubner piled on all the writings in the blogosphere on with a lead article (paywall) nine days later. But there is something about the whole blame the Atlanta VC meme that just does not feel right to me. They are not evil tree cuttings fools.

So I started some conversations with my VC friends. And this is what I learned.

Rich’s comment is considered a gross overstatement. Early stage money is in short supply, but it is still available. In 2006 seventeen early stage deals that raised $61 million were completed. Granted that is only 17% of the total raised, but it is there. However the early-stage money shorter supply is raising the deal quality bar. Individuals with a material track record from a previous venture can raise early stage funding. Vitrue and Damballa are evidence of this. If you don’t have the track record you best max out 32 credit cards like Noonan did.

I have come to the conclusion that it is another factor identified by Diamond that contributes to the weakening and collapse of present societies, as the real culprit. And that would be human-caused climate change.

The climate change is the dot com bubble and bust. From a venture capital ecosystem perspective, Atlanta has yet to recover. The funds previously available for angel investing or VC funds have fled to other vehicles that are viewed by rather conservative South as safer. As evidence, in 2006 Georgia companies raised $353 million in venture capital. In Q4 of 2006 $4 billion, yes billion, was invested in Atlanta real estate.

As a result of this flight the Atlanta VC population has died out. Only two firms, Noro Moseley and HIG invested more than $10 million last year. And with NMP V getting close to the end of its life they are somewhat limited in their ability to do early stage deals.

Regardless, climate change is a slow process. The elements to support early-stage investing are present in Atlanta. Don’t just blame the VCs. The causes are larger then that. The solution is more wins that attracts investment back into the tech sector. And VCs are part of that solution.