It’s recession.  And this article by Henry Blodget sent me over the top.  It begins:

Morgan Stanley economist (and perennial bear) Stephen Roach says the current US recession…

Like anyone that has ever successfully prevented themselves from completely glassing over during macroeconomics I can tell you that a recession is defined as a decline in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters of a year.  BTW, GDP is simply the value of all the goods and services produced by a country.

In Q3 of 2007 GDP grew at a very robust 4.9%. I am no economist but I can tell you that is a huge number.  While the Q4 figures will not be released until January 30, the estimates that I
have seen are in the 1.5% range.  While we may be heading toward one, currently we are not in a
recession.  It’s not technically possible.

When doing a little research for this article I came across a story by Brian Wesbury in today’s Journal.  According to Brian, “models based on recent monetary and tax policy suggest real GDP will grow at a 3% to 3.5% rate in 2008, while the probability of recession this year is 10%.”

Is there a housing crisis?  Yes, but deep rate cuts should fix that.   Are we in a bear market?  Darn close.  Are we in a recession? No.

And until we are people need to be a little more responsible when they are tossing that word around.