Quarterly Stock Update

Yesterday Knology was the last of the stocks in my play money portfolio to report earnings.  Here is how I am doing.

AAPL.  Bought into the stock in April at
$100.  CPU traction was the reason.  To paraphrase Paul Graham, everyone I know that is looking to buy a computer (and has control of the purchasing decision) is looking to buy a Mac.  On top of that the iPhone is a game changer.  It is a computer in your hand that you can also talk to people with.  Early iPhone sales results has added some volatility to the stock.  Regardless it is up 36% since purchase and driving overall recent portfolio gains.  I see $160 in the near term.

ELNK. Last time I wrote about this one I said “I don’t
see a business in consumer muni Wi-Fi”.  Well there is a new sheriff in town at EarthLink named Rolla Huff and neither does he.  Based on what Rolla said during the earnings call (the stock is down 15% since he first publicly spoke on July 26) and my general knowledge of the ISP business here’s a scenario.  EarthLink exits the Wi-Fi business.  They invest no more in Helio than what they have formally committed to and only if Sky Dayton meets certain operating milestones.  The business is right sized, resulting in a 40% RIF, perhaps rehiring in some slots with salaries more appropriate for a $1.2 billion company.  Private equity takes it out in a deal valued at $11 per share.  Wired just reported that a deal is happening a lot sooner.

JOE. Joe continues to disappoint as much as Apple pleases.  Down 36% for the year.  I think that something better to do with this money is Whole Foods but there are just so many questions around that company right now.

KNOL.  Knology is a cable overbuilder offering triple play services.  The stock has retreated  from the $19 where I locked in some gains to buy Apple and is currently sitting at $14. Still a 400% return in less then 3 years.  I have faith this will head north again based on revenue growth and cost control.

NFLX.  Big mistake.  Bought at $22 at the end of May and the stock is getting hammered based on competitive pressures.  I purchased the stock because I think someone is going to take them out.  Still do, but it’s painful at the moment.

SCUR. The story remains unchanged.  Came into this via my time at CipherTrust. Missed out on the big sell off when restrictions were lifted.  The stock is moving sideways and I would like to see a little recovery before starting a  measured unwind.

Its been a rough three months but overall my 12 month return dropped only a point to 36%.

August 9, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Stocks