Twitter Is Overvalued

I love Twitter. I was an early adopter of the micro-blogging platform. As a matter of fact today marks my seventh anniversary using the service.

And today is a big day for Twitter. The company is set to go public on the New York Stock Exchange. And the IPO is creating quite the noise. Congratulations is always in order when you go from three guys sitting in a San Francisco park to an IPO.

As a long-time user of Twitter and a guy that co-founded two startups (Socialytics and Twitpay) based on the Twitter ecosystem I have a pretty good understanding of the company. I like it as a business. The way that the company is positioned to complement traditional media creates more staying power than Facebook. You can't watch a sports program without announcers throwing out their Twitter handles. With that said, like Facebook at the time if its IPO, Twitter is overvalued.

Last night Twitter priced its offering at $26 a share. That values the company at $14.4 billion. Twitter has $535 million in trailing 12 months revenue. The valuation is 26 times revenue.  Twitter is being valued in the same range as Facebook when they went public. And Facebook had net income. Twitter does not.

All the hype around the Twitter offering is going to make the shares fly like a little birdie in the short-term. Longer term I expect the stock to behave like the infamous Fail Whale. That will be the time to buy.

November 7, 2013  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Social, Stocks