Redfin Financial Model

A few weeks ago I wrote an article pointing to Guy’s post on Redfin’s financial performance vs. the financial model that they had built.  Guy has a follow up article with the actual Excel file that Glenn Kelman has been using to run Redfin. 

Not sure that using someone else’s model as a template to build your own is a good idea, but I do think the file demonstrates the level of detail that you need to create a good working financial model.  I just finished working on a detailed revenue model for a consulting client that is over 30 sheets with some of the sheets running as deep as 400 rows. 

Creating a solid financial model and using it to run your business is one of the fundamental actions required to build to a successful business.  Not because you have a great model.  Because it helps you to understand the key drivers of the business.  Understanding the key drivers  focuses management attention on the things that matter.

Its pretty simple and straightforward, but not enough entrepreneurs put enough thought into it.

October 18, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Business

Heartfelt Words on Funding Strategy

I first got to know Tony Stubblebine at SoCon07.  Tony founded CrowdVine, a roll your own social network service.

Like many founders, Tony has spent a lot of time thinking about the funding strategy for his company.  Unlike many founders, Tony has bared his soul by writing a captivating article that is well worth the read about his personal journey and thought process.

October 17, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Entrepreneurship, Venture Capital

Best Seat in the House

A long, long time ago in a place not so far away, Catalyst Magazine used to have a series where they would interview a prominent Atlanta technology person.  One of the questions they routinely asked was “What’s the best seat in Atlanta?”  The most excellent answer ever award goes to Kathy Harris of Noro Moseley who replied,  “The bar at Taqueria del Sol.”

With all due respect to the West Side Margarita, I gotta tell you, the seat that I have at ATDC right now is pretty hard to beat. 

First of all it literally looks out over Tech Square.  But more importantly, I get to interact with some amazing entrepreneurs, good angels and VCs, savvy technologists, and smart academics.  Every day is at least one new startup case study. Every day I learn something. Every day I see a new concept.  Every few weeks or so I see a great concept.  About once a quarter I find something great that I know I could make go.  It really is an ideal sentry position.  The master plan to achieve my goal of founding and leading a successful technology company is working.

Today is my one-year anniversary at ATDC.  In addition to spending lots of time with applicant and member companies, I have been focusing on opening up the ATDC and making it both more accessible and more meaningful to a larger number of entrepreneurs.  The biggest visible manifestations of this effort can be seem in the new programs ATDC is undertaking.  Over the course of the past year we have surveyed entrepreneurs to see how ATDC can better assist them, launched PeachSeedz, hosted BarCamp, reached out to TechJournal South to bring DeckParty to Atlanta, and been the driver behind Startup Weekend heading this way.  While there is always an opportunity for improvement, the general feedback is that we are heading in the right direction.

When I joined ATDC I made a two-year commitment to Tony and the ATDC team.  One of those years is behind me now and it has been a successful one.  Over the course of the next year, with the help of my teammates, you will continue to see more of the same. 

But I am also going to start putting my master plan into higher gear. 

October 16, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Accelerators, atdc, Personal, Web/Tech

Capital Gap is Shrinking

Over on PeachSeedz Cindy Cheatham wrote an article about Knox Massey’s presentation at ATDC on the state of angel investing.  Both she and Knox addressed the capital gap, the lack of funding for firms looking to raise more than $500k but less then $2 million. While this gap certainly exists I think it is shrinking for three reasons.

1.  The rise of super angels and super angel groups.  The Seraph Group based in Atlanta is a good example of the latter.  You have all the required fundamentals of a good investment and need to raise #2 million.  They can write that check.

2.  Capital efficient startups.  There are lots of companies, particularly in the web app space, that don’t need more anything close to $500k to get started and gain customer acceptance.  YouTube just jumped over that gap and raised $3.5 million at $8 million pre due to the traction that they had created with little capital requirements.

3.  VCs moving downstream.  VCs are smart.  They recognize the capital gap just as much as you and I.  Some of them seem to be focused on being able to fund companies in the capital gap.   Charles River’s QuickStartSouthern Capital Ventures, and Union Square Ventures are three examples that come to mind.

Yes there is a capital gap problem.  Just like all real problems that are big and real, there are lots of folks out there looking for ways to solve it.

Update:  Interesting conversation at Hacker News.

October 15, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Angels, Venture Capital

Atlanta Can Compete

Dave Coustan sent me a note today suggesting that he was expecting to see an opposing view to Paul Graham’s recent post on Why to Move to A Startup Hub.

This led me to a write up that he did on a speech at FOWA where he claimed that "Atlanta is hosed." 

I beg to disagree with Mr. Graham. For that matter so does
Brian Oberkirch, (one of the organizers of FOWA) who unlike Paul or I has no vested interest, in his great write up with loads of links, "Where is Your Startup? Why Does It Matter?"

Here are seven reasons why Atlanta is a startup hub and not hosed.

1.  All the ingredients

A while back Paul noted how to be Silicon Valley.  Great post.   Atlanta has all the pieces to make this happen.  My post on the subject at the time.

2.  Formal support organizations

VentureLab commercializes intellectual property created at Georgia Tech and ATDC is a technology incubator that helps Georgia entrepreneurs launch and build successful companies.  Both are nationally recognized as best in class.

3.  World class universities

I am amazed that both Georgia Tech and Emory are a mere five miles apart.  Part of Stephen Fleming‘s pitch is that Tech is the number 4, which ain’t so bad when those ahead of you are MIT, Cal Tech, and Stanford.  We have the smarts it takes.  And Tech’s College of Computing is at the forefront of the changes needed to create students that can start their own companies.

4.  Local seed funding

The Atlanta Technology Angels and Seraph Group are strong angel organizations.  On top of those groups there are too many individuals to count.  While this is moaning from time to time from the entrepreneurial community, I have seen evidence of those that have been successful investing in new companies.

4.  Quality Venture Capitalists that are willing to travel and invest here

$1,000,000,000 in ATDC companies alone since 1999.  And every month a VC firm from either Boston or SV gets on a plane to come look at what ATDC and VentureLab companies are working on.  NEA just invested $5 million on a concept.

5.  Y-Combinator can be cloned

Look at TechStars.

6.  Quality of life

I have seriously considered moving to SV.  Not going to happen.  Cost of living is too high to do so in startup mode.  It is much more capital efficient to startup in an area that has all the important resources that you need to move your company forward with a low cost of living and good quality of like.  Atlanta fits that bill.

7.  World view

While there are many advantages to being in SV.  I can think of one big disadvantage.  People in the valley have a distorted world view.  The valley’s reality is very, very different than the vast majority people in the USA or the world.  They tend to forgot that from time to time.  This is not a good thing when you are building software.  Twitter and Facebook are all the rage in the valley.  Most of my relatives, spread across the country, have heard of neither.

Atlanta may not be the Antwerp of the diamond cutting world, but the diamond district in NYC gets along pretty well.  And so will Atlanta in the world of startups.

October 11, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Startups

Financial Model Numbers

When both Guy Kawasaki and Fred Wilson post on the same item in the same week its gotta be good.  What were these guys talking about?  A write up by Glenn Kelman of Redfin in which he exposes the numbers Redfin used in their financial model, what the actuals turned out to be, and ten lessons (it is on Guy’s blog) learned.

Must reading for any startup at the stage of building/modifying a financial model.

Money line is Guy’s advice: “the three most powerful words you can utter at a board meeting are, ‘We beat projections.’"

October 3, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Startups

Closing Day

Seems like the City of Atlanta has come to its senses and is abandoning the "Every day is an Opening Day" marketing campaign.

According to Ken Bernhardt, who did some research on the matter, only 3% of respondents could recall the slogan.  On top of that, participants in test markets (where the ads ran) were less likely to recommend Atlanta for a weekend getaway then those markets where Brand Atlanta did not advertise.

And while I have to buy soap to take to school so my kids can wash their hands after they go to the bathroom, the city spent $15 million on this. 23%, an outrageous amount, was spent on ad agency fees.  Shame on you Grey Worldwide, Lattimer Moffitt, Spunlogic, and Ignition.

Money quote; "This was really just a joke from the beginning."

Indeed.  Told you so.

October 1, 2007  |  Comments  |  Tweet  |  Posted in Marketing